Primary Wrap-Up

A few (very few) have asked my thoughts on the presidential campaign. As of this writing, we have the primaries behind us and the nominees known, but we're prior to the VP selections and the conventions themselves. So perhaps it's a good time to get some thoughts down --

Looking around at the macro signs, you have to think that there's no way a Democrat can lose (an unpopular incumbent, two unpopular wars, high(er) gas prices, an economy perceived as struggling, etc.)

Looking at the Electoral map, however, and you have to belief that a Republican would have a fairly good chance.

Pollster.com shows the numbers that really matter (although I'm not entirely sure of their sources or research), and while they currently depict a 260-191 Democratic edge, that doesn't include 87 Electoral votes in "toss-up" states, all of which (except NH) were won by the Republican in 2004.

Several other states shown as "leaning" Democrat (MI, NM, MN & IA) are at least viable targets for the Republicans, whereas the Democrats are unlikely to pick up any of the Republican states with the possible exception of MO. Nonetheless, the Democratic lock on CA, NY & IL ensure that it will be a close election (at least for a Republican to win).

William Kristol (via Jay Cost, via The Corner), has some interesting thoughts here.