Out of the Danger Zone

(with apologies to DeGarmo & Key; I just happened to be listening to the D&K album yesterday)


Scott Brown's senate victory in Massachusetts is remarkable on several levels, and a clear shot across the bow of the Obama administration. Granted, Martha Coakley was about the worst senate candidate in recent memory, but a Republican winning in Massachusetts by a healthy margin on the issue of health care for the seat held by Mary Jo Kopechne's killer for nearly 50 years is pretty amazing.

Draw whatever conclusions you want, and make whatever prognostications you wish about November 2010 or even 2012. That's part of the fun. I draw the parallel to the first two years of the Clinton Administration -- in November 1993, the Republicans swept all three major races (NYC mayor, VA governor & NJ governor). The Clintonistas didn't take the hint, and plowed ahead not only with HillaryCare, but the Great Gun Grab of 1994. This more than anything sealed the fate of the Democrats not only in the Senate (which may have gone Republican in any event), but also in the House.

Only then did Bill & Company wise up, reposition themselves as centrists, and survive the 1996 election to serve six more years in office. Monica notwithstanding, Clinton learned his lesson from 1994 and left office with some degree of favorability.

Fast-forward to 2009, and, again, the Republicans swept the three major races in November -- NYC Mayor, VA Governor and NJ Governor. In all fairness, it's difficult to read a strong anti-Obama sentiment into these races. However, Scott Brown's victory two months later seals the deal. The only question now is how the Prime Minister and his Chicago Mafia at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and their allies at the other end of the street, will respond --

Should they plow ahead against a clear public sentiment with the elitist attitude that they are wiser than the proletariat they seek to govern, they will face annihalation later this year and beyond.

However, should they take the clear lesson from Brown's victory, follow Clinton's example from fifteen years ago, and inch themselves back towards the center -- not just on healthcare, but on terrorism, taxes, spending and foreign policy -- they and their party may survive 2010 and 2012. In such a case, Brown's victory will -- ironically -- serve as the long-term counterbalance not to the Obama administration, but to Republican prospects in the next few election cycles.

Curt Schilling . . . yankee fan . . . good grief.